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Valdis Vuldorfs, Head of Trading Department, Aravana Capital Management 04.12.20 took part in the online conference «Macroeconomic Forecast for 2021. Best Investment Strategies», organized by the leading business publication in Russia – «Vedomosti».
The event was attended by invited speakers, including: Alexander Gabuev, Senior Advisor, Albright Stonebridge Group; Natalya Zubarevich, professor, Lomonosov Moscow State University; Anton Tabakh, chief economist, Expert RA, and Andrey Movchan, head of the Movchan’s Group investment management group.
Valdis Waldorfs kindly provided comments to the editorial staff of Aravana Capital Management regarding some of the topics voiced at the event.
Forecast of the situation on the energy market. Will oil prices return to “pre-pandemic” levels and will this help the Russian economy?
“Yes and no, it all depends on how quickly people get back to their normal rhythm. In this case, any forecast will be random and it is not clear when this will happen. Hence, it is also difficult to assume when demand will return in full, and with it prices will recover. The influence of the newfangled factor – electric vehicles is currently overestimated, the next 5-7 years, these trends will not seriously affect gasoline consumption.
If the consumption of gasoline is still not so bad, then the consumption of kerosene is in general trouble, because at the moment the number of air travel has dropped by an order of magnitude. In general, experts agree that we are now at a balance point with a greater degree of probability that we will see a gradual increase in the average annual price from 50 to 55/60 further to 65/70 yoy. “
The main factors that will influence the dynamics of the financial, stock, and commodity markets in 2021.
The main factors were and will remain:
1) US elections, or rather the announcement of the final results
2) The economic situation between China and the United States
3) New incentives primarily from the FED, as well as from other central banks
4) And only in the last place is the Vaccine. “
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