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Financial market analysis

Financial market analysis

18 May 2022

Last week, the main attention was focused on American gas, the fall of the American market, the growth of the dollar index, the fall of metals.

ES (S&P500)

The last value is 4088. We see a slight rebound in the index to the levels of 4100, maybe 4200. We are waiting.


PA (Palladium)

The last value is 2034. Palladium looks better than other metals. However, we refrain from buying for now. It looks like a technical rebound. Neutral. We are watching.


GC (Gold)

The last value is 1815. From here, the upward movement may begin, but much will depend on the dollar index. We are waiting.


CL (WTI Oil)

The last value is 111.20. The market is still forming a huge triangle, and in the near future we will see a giant movement of at least 20% on the asset. It looks like the movement has already begun, and the current targets will be the previous maximum – 130.


NG (Gas)

The last value is 8.30. American gas is gaining momentum again. Truly a real “roller coaster” for this asset. It is not yet clear whether there are enough forces to go further. No position, we are watching.


KC (Coffee)

For coffee, we had to close our short positions at breakeven. The market suddenly started to grow strongly. Now coffee is like to have enough strength to overcome the previous maximum and go higher, to 300.


USD/RUB

The last value is 63.60. If we were in an ideal market without all the interventions and prohibitions from the regulator, then it would be possible to assume that the rate would once again go closer to 85-90, before it would already thoroughly fall to the area of 50 or below. Most likely, this month we will see a weakening of the ruble to the above levels.


BTC (Bitcoin)

The last value is 30500. Bitcoin, like the American market, preferred declining to growing. If the level of 30000 holds, then we will still be able to see the growth of the asset. We are still in the longs with the expectation of a correction to the levels of 35000 or higher. We are waiting.


HG (Copper)

The last value is 4.23. That’s the correction that we predicted last week. We are in the longs and waiting for the upward movement. We need to be careful, because perhaps we will once again see a movement closer to the last lows.


US, ZB (Futures on 30-year bonds)

Bonds are still under pressure. The last value is 138.11. We expect a slight pullback in order to gain short positions again. The level for sale is 145.50.


DX (Dollar Index)

The last value is 103.30. The dollar index has broken through the highs of 2020 and 2016. However, the level is very strong, and presumably from here there will be a correction to 101.00 or lower. We are waiting.


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