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Financial market analysis

15 October 2020

Leading trader Valdis Vuldorfs predictions:

ES (S&P500). They reached almost the previous highs, the last value of 3500. The reporting season has started, a lot will depend on what results the main companies show. The main recommendation is that it is better to remain without positions on this asset before the elections.


PA (Palladium). Everything went strictly according to the scenario (pushed off from 2190, took the level of 2450), but today we see an excessively strong correction, the last value is 2320, we can reach 2250 or even lower, while the uptrend remains.


GC (Gold). It is extremely difficult for gold to grow, it looks more towards the dynamics of the DX (Dollar Index). If it does not hold at 1900 now, it will fall to 1850 and then may even break this level below.


CL (WTI Oil). The oil was moving sideways again. The last value of 40.30 is exactly the same as last week. Anything outside the 41/36 range will provide food for thought.


NG (Gas). I tried to get higher and reached the level of 2.90. It is hard to see that the movement will continue. No positions.


KC (Coffee). We are in a long position from 1.06 (since last week, we wrote about this level earlier), we expect 1.16, maybe even 1.24.


USD / RUB. A little in the correction to the upward movement, the last prices 77.05, until the trend is broken, therefore, there is still a chance to capture 82.


BTC (Bitcoin). I started to move to the level of 12000, we have been writing about this for 3 weeks, the current value is 11400, there is not much left. After 12000 we can accelerate to 14000.


HG (Copper). The correction ended at 2.83 levels and we are again storming the previous high – 3.10. There is no certainty that it will still be possible to overcome these levels and move further to 3.4, the scenario of a hike to 2.70 or even 2.55 looks more logical.


PL (Platinum). Looks weak, like other metals. Targets down 825, 800, 765


US, ZB (30-year bond futures). After the recent decline, it is growing for the fifth day, the last reading is 175.20. Out of position.


DX (Dollar Index) . All week they were down from 94.80 to 93.00. The dollar is gradually losing ground again. In the corridor 94.80 – 92 it can be in blocks, as soon as it comes out, interest will immediately appear.


Aravana Capital Management provides clients with profitability even during downturns in global equity and bond markets.


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15 October 2020
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