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Financial market analysis

Financial market analysis

16 September 2020

BTC (Bitcoin)

After falling to the level of 10,000, it gradually begins to move upward again. The last values ​​of 10800, the prospects of reaching their previous highs of 12,000 are quite realistic, however, buying at the moment is a little late, and if you did not buy at 10,000, you should wait until the 12,000 levels are broken in order to be as confident as possible in further upward movement.


The USD / RUB pair is moving smoothly upward, after taking the 76.5 level, it pulled back slightly to the 74.7 level. In general, even if we see a correction to 73, it will still be an upward movement to the levels of 77.82.

KC (Coffee)

After a long rise to 1.355 levels, the last 2 days has shown a phenomenal correction of almost 15%! And at the moment the price reached 1.15. The close of the day is difficult at 1.216. There is no complete certainty about further scenarios. As part of the company, we managed to work out the fall in the asset yesterday, but currently out of position.

NG (Gas)

Provided a correction week for the asset, as we promised. It is difficult to say whether the correction will continue. We have exited the asset and will continue to monitor its movement.

CL (WTI Oil)

It took a full 3 months for the oil to correct its long ascent. And after oil fell from 44 to 36 all last week it was estimated at 37 and only today an attempt was made to go higher again. As a result, it closes the day at 38.30. In general, such a formation is very unstable and can with equal probability show an asset growth up to the previous highs (44) or even higher. A mirror situation is also possible in which the asset, having reached conditionally 40, will turn sharply and continue its fall below the 36 levels.

GC (Gold)

Most likely, the FED is expected to meet on Wednesday, where we can see a sharp movement of minimum points at 20-30. As for the direction of movement, not everything is clear yet, because we can see a stronger correction in the uptrend up to 1800. And we can rise from these levels to a new high and higher.

PA (Palladium)

All the same, it is possible to break through the previous maximum of 2400, the closing price of the day 2433. The next target is only 2800 – the absolute maximum set at the beginning of this year. All expectations for this asset turned out to be correct.

ES (S&P 500) 

After a sharp correction from 3600 to 3300 levels the week before last, it seems to have “felt” the bottom and is gradually trying to grow. The latest values ​​are 3410, our recommendation to buy an asset last week is making a profit.

Aravana Capital Management provides clients with profitability even during downturns in global equity and bond markets.

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16 September 2020
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