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Financial market analysis

Financial market analysis

17 February 2021

Ideas, forecasts and analytics

Forecasts of the head of the trading department of Aravana CM Valdis Waldorfs:

ES (S & P500)

The last value is 3930. If we see a correction to 3755, it makes sense to go back to buying. Although it is quite possible we will see a couple of weeks of sideways movement. We are waiting for the market itself to provide an opportunity to earn.


PA (Palladium)

After buying at 2250, the first target – 2400 has already been worked out (which gave + 6.5% for futures, or 65% for invested capital. Since you need 10% of your funds to trade palladium futures), 50% of the position is closed, we are waiting for 2500, stop at breakeven at 2250.


GC (Gold)

Gold is heading towards the lower levels of its half-year correction. I look forward to the big game coming soon. Our scenario is a puncture of the lower level of 1770, at the end of the week it already makes sense to start gaining a position, this time for a long time with the targets of the previous maximum of 2100.


CL (WTI Oil)

Oil has renewed its previous high. The last values ​​are 60.40. Correction is ripe. At the moment, if it goes down sharply, then the buy levels will not be earlier than 51. It makes sense to sell only if you are able to exit the position in time and observe risk management.


NG (Gas)

Gas grows on events in Texas and Europe. Most likely it will go up to 3.40, but the trade from here is too weak in terms of risk to reward ratio.


KC (Coffee)

We managed to take coffee on Friday at 122.10 and close yesterday at 126.50 (+ 3.6% interest on the asset, or 43% on capital used, considering the built-in leverage of the futures).


USD/RUB

Well, we got to 73.2 last week. Perhaps there will be enough strength to go lower to the levels we indicated earlier 72.


BTC (Bitcoin)

After the circulated news that Musk has acquired bitcoin for $ 1.5 billion and is considering accepting payments in cryptocurrency for Tesla cars, the asset indicator rises higher. We play our favorite game with a chair on the market, someone, as usual, will not have time to get out.


HG (Copper)

Now you can see that we were a little rushed by closing the trade at 3.70. But plus is plus! We are waiting for 3.57 to resume shopping.


PL (Platinum)

After 1200, the asset went sharply higher and set a new local maximum – 1348.30. There is a significant overbought in the last few days, weeks, months, which means that a massive correction is not far off, you need to be as careful as possible with purchases.


US, ZB (30-year bond futures)

The last value is 164.50. We look forward to a rebound higher to 170 in order to try to sell again.


DX (Dollar Index)

Attempts to draw a reversal pattern. Until we hit 91.50 upwards, the scenario is the same – we go to 88.50.


17 February 2021
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