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Прогнозы ведущего трейдера Валдиса Вулдорфса:
Takes the next heights, moves as calmly as possible. Now rumors about the next support measures are being heated. Perhaps volatility will return after the official announcement of the results of the US elections. In the index without positions, there are individual stocks.
The last value is 2313. Judging by the dynamics, it may dive a little lower, at least to the previous local minimum – 2225. The benchmark is still up to 2500.
The asset has been growing all week and reached the level of 1875, but at the moment the formation is extremely weak and may break down again to 1770.
CL (WTI Oil)
All growth drivers have already been worked out, a rollback to 41.50 from the current 45.50 would look quite appropriate. In this case, purchases can be resumed.
Exactly after the target was taken at 3.00, the asset went into a protracted correction. Now is a great opportunity to buy at the current 2.45 with a minimum target of 2.7 and maybe 3.40.
It looks strange, 60 to 40, which will continue to rise right from here, but this is not enough to recommend that you buy this asset.
USD / RUB
The ruble rate plunged deeper to 73.50, many investor houses unanimously say that the “fair” price is much lower, the levels are 71.00, and the most daring predict even 68.00. Even if we consider such a scenario, then before that we with a high degree of probability will first see 76 and only then a downward movement. In many ways, this is not so much the strengthening of the ruble itself, albeit at the good price of oil, as the weakness of the dollar itself.
Now there is very little doubt that we have repeated the feat of 2017 and will go into a “well-deserved correction”. At the moment, the levels 15700, 14300 look extremely interesting, I think if you try to buy from these levels, it could be a good deal.
3.40 level is taken. We are now even above 3.50. Correction at 3.30 3.20 and again into battle. We wait.
Indeed, the 1040 level was taken with ease last week. The price of the asset at its maximum point even reached 1090. I still consider the nearest upward level – 1170
US, ZB (30-year bond futures)
The last week has passed rather laterally. No interest at the moment.
DX (Dollar Index)
More and more experts are inclined to believe that the dollar index will go down by 10-20%, which is quite significant. While we are at the lower border of the channel – 90.95, we managed to sell at 93 and exit at 90.50. We are waiting for a correction to 92.50 and will try to sell again.
Aravana Capital Management provides clients with profitability even during downturns in the global equity and bond markets