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Analysis of financial markets

Analysis of financial markets

11 May 2022

Last week, the main attention was focused on American gas, the fall of metals, the growth of the dollar index, the decision on the Federal Reserve rate.

ES (S&P500)

The last value is 4001. The market is under pressure due to FED reserve’s decision to raise the discount rate by 50 basis points, as well as to reduce the asset repurchase program. The COVID-19 story is gaining momentum again. The number of open long positions is decreasing significantly. The dollar index is growing. Everyone gives preference to cash. The 4000 zone will still be an important level, if these levels are broken through, the market will be able to dive much lower. At the moment, we have bought some assets when the market is close the 4100 values. We are waiting.

PA (Palladium)

Last value is 2045. Palladium looks better than other metals. However, there’s no willingness to buy it yet. Neutral. We are watching.

GC (Gold)

The last value is 1837. We were forced to close the recent longs on gold, as well as on silver, at no loss. We are waiting.

CL (WTI Oil)

The last value is 99.40. The market is still forming a huge triangle, and in the near future we will see a giant movement of at least 20% on the asset. 

NG (Gas)

The last value is 7.30. American gas has updated the maximum, after which it went into a strong correction and is gaining momentum again. Truly a real “roller coaster” for this asset. It is not yet clear whether there are enough forces to go further. No position, we are watching. 

KC (Coffee)

Coffee can go down dramatically from current levels, therefore, as we said, we sold it from the levels of 211. The current situation can also be interpreted as a global reversal. 


The last value is 69.40. If we were in an ideal market without all the interventions and prohibitions from the regulator, then it would be possible to assume that the rate once again would go closer to 85-90, before it would already thoroughly go to the area of 50 or below. Most likely, this month we will see a weakening of the ruble to the above levels.

BTC (Bitcoin)

The last value is 30800. Bitcoin, like the American market, preferred decline instead of growth. If the 30,000 level holds, then we will still be able to see the growth of the asset. We closed our sales from 35,000 and bought here in the hope of a correction. We are waiting.

HG (Copper)

The last value is 4.16. Here comes the correction that we predicted last week. We continue to get longs and wait for the upward movement. 

US, ZB (Futures on 30-year bonds)

Bonds are still under pressure. The last value is 138.20. We expect a slight pullback in order to gain short positions again. The level for sale is 146.00.

DX (Dollar Index)

The last value is 103.93. The dollar index has reached the highs of 2020 and 2016. The level is very strong, and presumably from here there will be a correction to 100.00. We are waiting.

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