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Analysis of financial markets

Analysis of financial markets

4 May 2022

Last week, the main attention was focused on American gas, the fall of metals, the growth of the dollar index, the strengthening of the ruble.

ES (S&P500)

The last value is 4175. The market is under pressure due to the not very successful reporting period, and the possibility of raising the FED reserve rate by the amount which is more than it was previously announced. The COVID-19 story is gaining momentum again. The number of open long positions is decreasing significantly. The dollar index is growing. Everyone gives preference to cash. The 4100 zone will still be an important level, if these levels are broken through, the market will be able to dive much lower. At the moment, we have bought some assets when the market is close the 4100 values. We are waiting.


PA (Palladium)

The last value is 2250. Palladium looks better than other metals. However, there’s no willingness to buy it yet. Neutral. We are watching.


GC (Gold)

The last value is 1865. We still have long positions. We are waiting.


CL (WTI Oil)

The last value is 103.15. The market is still forming a huge triangle, and in the near future we will see a giant movement of at least 20% on the asset. 


NG (Gas)

The last value is 7.80. Gas nominally updated the maximum. It is not yet clear whether there are enough forces to go further. No position, we are watching. 


KC (Coffee)

Coffee can go down dramatically from the current levels, so we are carefully watching the level of 211. The current situation can also be interpreted as a global reversal, on the other hand, coffee can make another attempt to reach the level of 300, so we are choosing a wait-and-see position for now. 


USD/RUB

The last value is 71.00. If we were in an ideal market without all the interventions and prohibitions from the regulator, then it would be possible to assume that the rate once again would go closer to 85-90, before it would already thoroughly fall to the area of 50 or below. At the moment, the ruble is affected by the tax period. Most likely, this month we will see a weakening of the ruble to the above levels.


BTC (Bitcoin)

The last value is 38000. Bitcoin, like the American market, is waiting for further signals either to rise or to fall. At the moment, it is necessary to monitor the 47000 and 35000 levels, the penetration of any of them will determine the further dynamics. Up to this point, the market may be in a sideways position for a long time.


HG (Copper)

The last value is 4.30. So the correction that we predicted last week has come. We continue to get longs and wait for the upward movement. 


US, ZB (Futures on 30-year bonds)

Bonds are still under pressure. The last value is 139.75. We expect a slight pullback in order to gain short positions again. The level for sale is 147.50.


DX (Dollar Index)

The last value is 103.50. The dollar index has reached the highs of 2020 and 2016. The level is very strong, and presumably from here there will be a correction to 101.50. We are waiting.


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