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Analysis of Capital One Financial Corporation.

Analysis of Capital One Financial Corporation.

10 August 2022

Capital One: everything will be fine

One of the most progressive banks in the United States, which has transferred the operating ecosystem to a cloud platform and reduced the use of standard data center capacities, is Capital One. The most advanced Internet banking in the USA, a brand recognizable in car loans and one of the reputable issuers of bank cards. 

The results of the second quarter of 2022 for the American bank were not the most impressive:

  • net profit -42.6% YoY to $2 billion, or $4.96 per share – below consensus estimate;
  • revenue increased +11.6% YoY to $8.2 billion;
  • significantly increased operating expenses (+15.6% YoY);
  • spending on credit risk has increased against the backdrop of a global deterioration in expectations for the economy. In this case, $200 million was allocated to supplement the reserve.

The company does not have the strongest dividend policy – the average yield is estimated at 2.2%, there are more interesting stories. 

Business strengths:

  • stable balance indicators;
  • confident positions in credit card directions, a good rating of the bank in the consumer context;
  • effective business model;
  • undervaluation of securities by multipliers P/B and P/E in comparison with competitors by about a third.

The company has a very stable reputation among consumers – in the 90s, Capital One actively distributed its credit cards and is still the fifth largest issuer of bank cards in the country and the second – in issuing car loans. 

The global view of the banking business and specifically Capital One is cautiously optimistic. 

The consensus estimate for Capital One shares is $122-130.

The technical picture looks moderately optimistic. The MACD indicator on the daily chart moves along the signal line and does not give a clear signal yet. The Stochastic oscillator has started to grow in the negative zone, and signals a purchase.

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    ARAVANA Capital management
    10 August 2022
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